Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 10.843106 12.431046 14.138102 16.105739 18.307080 20.689855 23.459948
2025-11-09 8.485323 10.636771 13.127504 16.208013 19.898192 24.158452 29.429575
2025-11-16 7.202160 9.568851 12.442776 16.159414 20.805132 26.384489 33.552120
2025-11-23 6.163551 8.638892 11.778612 16.005530 21.492888 28.315726 37.372172
2025-11-30 5.475258 8.038538 11.414072 16.116660 22.419205 30.485580 41.485808
2025-12-07 5.032064 7.702856 11.339956 16.562844 23.761138 33.208608 46.396127
2025-12-14 4.451316 7.102170 10.833565 16.352944 24.168707 34.677603 49.676860
2025-12-21 3.818529 6.353611 10.042852 15.663451 23.838524 35.094356 51.511916
2025-12-28 3.578958 6.167240 10.039424 16.083893 25.069820 37.682352 56.403228
2026-01-04 3.332036 5.941519 9.951623 16.359847 26.088146 39.994974 60.981590
2026-01-11 3.021359 5.580643 9.623222 16.239159 26.497445 41.433942 64.350281
2026-01-18 2.738518 5.236405 9.289503 16.077911 26.820464 42.740131 67.553264
2026-01-25 2.513577 4.974085 9.073752 16.097448 27.434980 44.525129 71.570184
2026-02-01 2.332009 4.770167 8.937275 16.232349 28.231297 46.611257 76.114711
2026-02-08 2.135928 4.518591 8.696924 16.171955 28.699601 48.197758 79.939874
2026-02-15 1.945521 4.257510 8.417609 16.022152 29.005169 49.531192 83.410264
2026-02-22 1.813761 4.094909 8.297469 16.131868 29.733545 51.543374 87.989271
2026-03-01 1.741327 4.042012 8.370040 16.578975 31.041874 54.519977 94.177612
2026-03-08 1.586664 3.806176 8.085666 16.368699 31.214465 55.661240 97.471896
2026-03-15 1.388154 3.456814 7.558058 15.678696 30.514432 55.335669 98.374564
2026-03-22 1.337522 3.419887 7.629908 16.099467 31.779709 58.303682 104.733204
2026-03-29 1.274034 3.347987 7.626566 16.375663 32.795048 60.881881 110.522862
2026-04-05 1.174171 3.183119 7.423402 16.254869 33.082992 62.230599 114.300978